Market Rallies in the Face of COVID Crisis and Massive Unemployment
July 2, 2020
Markets staged a historic rebound in the second quarter driven by an initial peak in the growth of coronavirus infections in April, economic reopenings across the United States and the rest of the world, hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine, and continued stimulus from global central banks, including the Federal Reserve.
The end of the first quarter marked the lows for markets so far in 2020 as new coronavirus cases in the U.S. began to peak in mid-April thanks to the historic economic shutdown. That peak and initial decline in new COVID-19 cases throughout April gave investors and markets hope that the economic shutdown would not last into the summer and the S&P 500 rallied materially as a result, gaining over 12% in April.
The rebound continued in May, as the spread of the coronavirus continued to slow, paving the way for economic reopenings in the U.S and abroad. By the end of May, all 50 states had at least partially reopened their economies which led to a stronger-than-expected economic recovery. Meanwhile, markets were supported by continued economic stimulus from both the Federal government, via unemployment checks and “PPP loans” to businesses, and the Federal Reserve, via bond purchases. The S&P 500 rallied more than 4% in May, while the Nasdaq Composite turned positive for 2020—a development that seemed almost impossible during the depths of the March declines.
But the two-plus-month rally was interrupted in mid-June, thanks to a sudden resurgence in coronavirus cases. Numerous states, including Florida, Texas, Arizona and California saw coronavirus cases begin to increase mid-month, and by the last week of June, new daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. hit an all-time high. As a result, volatility edged higher into the end of June, although the market reaction was muted compared to the volatility in February and March as the increased case count had not put extreme stress on various state healthcare systems.
Looking forward, as we begin a new quarter and the second half of 2020, the macroeconomic outlook has improved substantially since March, and stocks have responded accordingly with a very strong rally off the March lows. But the last two weeks of June were a stern reminder that much uncertainty remains, and during the next several months we will learn whether the coronavirus outbreak will peak, and if the economic recovery we’ve seen since April can continue. Those factors, along with the increasing influence of politics given the November election, will impact markets in the months ahead.
This material prepared by TrinityPoint Wealth is for informational purposes only. Additional data provided by Kinsale Trading LLC. It is not intended to serve as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Opinions expressed by TrinityPoint Wealth are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. TrinityPoint Wealth, however, cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.